Obama and the Democrats push through an $827 billion package

In the gauzy days of bipartisan good feeling before his Inauguration, there was talk of President Barack Obama linking arms with Republicans to pass a massive stimulus bill, with a big bipartisan Senate majority as proof the parties could come together in a time of national distress.

So much for that.

Now Obama and the Democrats are poised to push through an $827 billion package Tuesday with as few as three Republican votes in the Senate, after notching zero on the House side.

The risks for Obama are considerable. He and the Democrats will have no one else to blame if the package fails to boost the economy. Obama himself has said his first term can be judged on whether it succeeds, whether it creates or saves the 3 million to 4 million jobs he promises.

And if the economy fails to show marked signs of improvement — a possibility indeed — Republicans will have a megabillion-dollar “I told you so” in their pockets, just in time for the 2010 midterm elections and Obama’s own reelection bid in 2012.

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the fallout from a Democrat-only bill will be “squarely in the president and the Democratic leadership’s lap.”

If Obama signs a stimulus bill that has been approved on a party-line vote, “which I have no confidence will work, then I think this is very serious blow early on to his presidency,” Cornyn said.

Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) acknowledged the lack of bipartisan support “weakens the bill” and said voters should try to withhold judgment until a final product emerges from conference. But he warned that the GOP would suffer from withholding support.

Yet Republicans are gambling themselves — and perhaps with even higher stakes.

Still seeking a way forward from their Election Day thumping, they risk appearing out of touch as the unemployment rate jumps to 7.6 percent and a popular new president is appearing to seek their support to address the crisis. By turning their backs on him and opposing action at a time when millions of Americans are in need, they may invite a “party of no” bull’s-eye on their backs.

Polls show the public is giving Obama good grades and a 65 percent approval rating for trying to do something to stem the recession and for reaching across the aisle. And there’s the chance it just might work.

“I think they are stunned by their defeat and their minority status, and, sadly, some of them are not willing to cooperate,” said Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.). Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that the Republicans are “helping dig their own grave.”

Both sides spent Sunday previewing these battle lines. Obama’s chief economic adviser Larry Summers blasted the Republican contention that the Democratic stimulus bill was just a return to big-government days.

“Those who presided over the last eight years — the eight years that brought us to the point where we inherited trillions of dollars of deficit an economy that’s collapsing more rapidly than at any time in the last 50 years — don’t seem to be in a strong position to lecture about the lessons of history,” Summers said on ABC News.

But Obama’s presidential rival, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the bill itself amounts to a repudiation of Obama’s campaign call for a new day in Washington, because it was constructed with little or no Republican input.

“I thought we were going to have change,” he said in a shot at Obama’s campaign slogan, “and that change meant we work together. This is a setback. This is a setback to all Americans because you promised Americans we’d work in a more bipartisan fashion, and that certainly is not the case in this bill.”.

“I know we’re in trouble. I know America needs a stimulus, we need tax cuts, we need to spend money on infrastructure and other programs that will put people to work. But this is not it,” McCain said.

As of Sunday, there was no sign of a groundswell of Republican support beyond what Obama seems to have in hand — Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.

That’s enough to squeak over the goal line with 60 votes — but far from the 80 votes once floated by some Democratic strategists.

“That was never realistic,” said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs in an interview about the prospect of assembling as many as 80 votes for the stimulus package. “It was never something we talked about.”

Now, Gibbs said, “The number that matters is the number of jobs you create.”

Obama had spent weeks courting congressional Republicans — over lunch, over cocktails, at his place and theirs — but mustered no GOP votes from the House. His efforts to woo Senate Republicans also met stiff resistance.

So he changed course dramatically Thursday — when the president gave a stemwinder of a political speech to House Democrats at their retreat, all but mocking George W. Bush’s economic policy that left him with a doubled national debt “wrapped in a bow” when he walked into the Oval Office.

He also made clear that he believed his own economic philosophy, and the need for a big stimulus plan, were on the ballot with him in November — and reminded Republicans that he emerged victorious. Still, Obama will be judged on this bill as much, if not more than, the lesser-known members of the legislative branch.

His handling of the stimulus represents the first test of his ability to keep the Democratic-controlled Congress in line, and to bring Republicans across the aisle.

Unlike George W. Bush, who often tried to force Congress to bend to his will, or Bill Clinton, who did the same on health care, Obama has shown deference to congressional leaders — laying out a vision for his stimulus but not writing the legislative details.

Some Democrats suggested that Obama erred by giving lawmakers too much leeway, resulting in extraneous provisions in the bill that gave the GOP fresh ammunition to argue that the bill lacks focus and that what was at one point a $900-billion-plus price tag was unwarranted.

“My advice would be next time the administration should write the bill, and not leave it to all the disparate odds and ends of the Congress,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). “It’s kind of an institutional problem because everybody has worked for years and has certain things that they really want to get in a bill.”

Gibbs tried to remain philosophical, insisting the stimulus fight carried no “downside or long-term effect” in their relationship with Republicans.

“I mean, look, this is a place ... where old habits die hard, and it’s going to take a little while to trust each other and work together,” he said.