Counting of votes on in five states

The emerging results to Assembly polls show a 3:2 split in favour of Congress, providing a much-needed boost to the UPA just ahead of general elections due in April-May 2009. It will give Congress the breathing space it needs to tackle the fallout of the Mumbai attacks and an economic slowdown.

Apart from a win in Mizoram, the poll outcome in Rajasthan and Delhi would please the Congress leadership. Of all the elections, Congress’s hat-trick in Delhi is clearly the highlight of this round of elections. Though it is semi-state with just a 70-seat House, Delhi has a highly symbolic value and the verdict will be seen to reflect on issues like terrorism and price rise.

Sheila Dikshit has pulled off an unlikely victory and looks to be one of the most successful chief ministers ever. The third win coming at the back of political set backs like sealings and demolitions is remarkable. The party’s prospects were seen to be synonymous with the CM, given the free hand she had in ticket selection.

Congress headed for a hatrick today in Delhi having bagged 28 out of 43 seats, results for which were available, leaving its rival BJP way behind with 13 seats.

Dikshit and five of her cabinet colleagues were among the successful candidates of Congress in the keenly contested electoral battle for the 70-member House.

Dikshit, chief minister for past ten years, got 39,747 votes defeating BJP's Vijay Jolly by a margin of 14,078 votes. This is her third consecutive win in the Assembly elections, this time from the newly created New Delhi constituency following delimitation.

Om Prakash Chautala-led INLD sprang a surprise by winning Najafgarh seat while BSP bagged the Gokulpuri seat.

In Mizoram, riding an anti-incumbency wave, the Congress was back in power after a decade when it got a majority routing the Mizo National Front.

The party secured 21 of the 23 seats for which results have been declared in a House of 40. Two-time chief minister Lal Thanhawla won from both Serchhip and South Tuipui seats.

The MNF cut a sorry figure with Chief Minister Zoramthanga biting the dust in his Champahi North constituency where he lost to a Congress greenhorn T T Zothansanga.

BJP can draw some satisfaction by retaining two big, “under-developed” states like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. This is not an easy feat and marks the rise of a new kind of satraps – low-profile organisation men like Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh. It has put up a creditable show in Rajasthan, where incumbency has not generated a wave.

But overall, BJP has reasons to worry. There is a problem with its message and messengers. Despite the projection of “national issues” like terrorism, there did not seem much purchase with the voter – something that BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L K Advani will have to factor in. The saffron party remains divided and the factional warfare is not expected to decrease.

Congress has gained breathing space, but not much. If it does not act fast on issues like economic slowdown and slows down on the terror threat, it can yet again pay the price of complacency. The party would have to keep in mind that while its state governments have paid a price for incumbency, it has not been able to extract a similar toll of the BJP.

As the results in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh prove performance does matter after all.